Why it will hurt John Brumby

Victorian Premier John Brumby had a tough last week. Labour party suffered a double-digit primary vote swing in a by-election for one of its ultra-safe mortgage-belt seats – a swing that went straight to the Liberals.  Swing against Labour in Altona which was a safe Labour seat is the equivalent of Mulayam Singh Yadav gaining ground in the Gandhi family bastion of Amethi in Uttar Pradesh in India. Labour held the seat with a 20 per cent margin at the 2006 election.

When John Brumby faces elections in November this year, he will have a lot of marketing to do to convince voters whether he changed the state of Victoria for better or for worse. By all counts Brumby looks to be in trouble and retaining the Labour lead in Victoria now appears like a small challenge instead of a straight cake walk. Anna Bligh in Queensland is facing her worst opinion polls with voters disgusted with her style of governance. Bligh got a satisfaction rating of just 28 per cent in recent polls. Tasmania also goes to elections in March as well with Labour in defensive mode and Kristina Keneally in NSW has been thrown to the wolves by Labour caucus and faces an uphill battle of convincing voters to vote for Labour. So defensive has Labour become in NSW that they are even promising a fare reduction in public transport. The politics of this country is going to change radically soon and the change may start with John Brumby in Victoria.

For a moment lets try to find out why John Brumby, who emerged as a favourite to be appointed Premier on 20 July 2007, got to such disappointing levels in a span of just 2 and half years.  Here is a man who made promises for delivering good governance in Victoria. Along with his Police Commissioner Simon Overland, they are accountable for preventing crime in their state. The buck stops with them.

Mainstream Australians may tacitly agree to their claims that Australia is not a racist nation but every screaming assault story will ultimately scare households who know that they or their kids can be a target and also know that security has deteriorated in Victoria. Like financial security, voters want safety and security on the roads and when people vote, this will be one of the main considerations on their mind. If it is international students who are facing the flak today, it could be other vulnerable segments of society like old people and women who could be potential targets. At some stage they will want their government to act and stop the violence. By all standards Brumby Government lacks both the will and the resources.

One of the reasons why John Brumby has been in denial mode for student attacks could be the coming state selections. Brumby does not want to admit security lapse as it will hurt his image.

Australian voters are intelligent and vote only after careful analysis. Voters will see through him and every assault on Indian student in Victoria will be a roadblock in the continuation of Labour victory in Victoria. John Brumby faces an uphill task to restore Melbourne’s reputation as a safe place for people of all nationalities.

The coming winter months will serve as a litmus test for the government. Violence against Indian students peaks in the winter months when there is darkness for more hours on the streets and if it continues, Brumby will continue to lose ground.

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